Alberta Referendum Says No to Leaving Canada, Yes to Taking On Ottawa

Albertans rejected a route out of Canada by about 76% to 24% on 19 October, with about 1.8 million ballots counted. The question asked whether the province should start the legal process towards a binding vote on separation. Nearly half a million people said yes. Elections Alberta will publish official results on 29 October.

The same ballot carried nine more questions, and “yes” led on eight of them. About 63% backed proof of citizenship to vote in provincial elections. About 57% backed limiting health care, education and social services to citizens, permanent residents and people with approved immigration status. A narrower 51.3% supported letting provinces choose senior judges, according to unofficial counts.

Premier Danielle Smith called the vote and backed staying. In a televised address on 20 October, she closed the exit question. “I will honour this mandate from Albertans and will not be holding another referendum on this issue,” she said. She added that “many political and constitutional battles” remain. Prime Minister Mark Carney said Albertans “chose unity, to build together, and to take care of each other”.

Alberta’s result fits a pattern now visible in Quebec City, Edinburgh, Cardiff and Paris. Parties that champion self-rule keep winning office, yet polls only occasionally show majorities for a clean break. So these movements press the centre for powers, money and rules, and keep exit as their bargaining weight.

Quebec elects a sovereigntist government

A fortnight before Alberta voted, the Parti Québécois won 59 of 127 seats in the National Assembly on 5 October. That left it five short of a majority, on 28% of the vote. Its leader, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, has promised a third referendum on sovereignty during his first term. He says he’ll wait until Donald Trump leaves the White House in January 2029.

Support for independence stands at “about 30 percent”, said Daniel Béland, a political science professor at McGill University. He called that low by historical standards.

Alberta’s referendum and Quebec’s election came within a fortnight of each other, and turned on different questions. In Alberta, the ballot centred on immigration, social spending and the reach of federal law, and Smith acknowledged voters’ “legitimate frustrations”. Movements for more self-rule are active well beyond Canada, from Europe to the Pacific, and their causes vary just as widely. Scotland voted 62% to 38% to stay in the EU in 2016, while the UK as a whole voted to leave. Greenland’s debate turns on pressure from Washington. Bougainville’s vote comes from the 2001 peace agreement that ended a decade of conflict with Papua New Guinea. In the UK, three devolved governments are now pressing their case together.

Three first ministers sign a pact in Cardiff

Scotland’s John Swinney, Wales’s Rhun ap Iorwerth and Northern Ireland’s Michelle O’Neill met in Cardiff on 14 September. They signed a memorandum declaring that “Westminster’s time is coming to an end”. It asked the UK government to “prepare for, plan and facilitate constitutional change in each jurisdiction”. It also placed the three nations’ future in the European Union.

In Scotland, the SNP won 58 of Holyrood’s 129 seats in May, and the Scottish Greens won 15. That gives parties backing independence a clear majority. At the SNP conference in Aberdeen on 17 October, Swinney said: “Independence is very, very close.” Survation, in a poll commissioned by the SNP, put Yes at 52% once undecided voters were excluded. YouGov’s survey of 1,060 adults, taken from 29 September to 5 October, put No at 53% and Yes at 47%.

Andy Burnham has tied any second referendum to public opinion. The prime minister told MPs on 9 September he was “not aware there is a majority of public support for another referendum”. Until that changes, he said, “there won’t be one”. A 2022 UK Supreme Court ruling means Holyrood can’t legislate for a vote without Westminster’s consent.

In Wales, Plaid Cymru won 43 of 96 seats in May. That ended a century of Labour dominance in Welsh politics. Ap Iorwerth became first minister on 12 May at the head of a minority government. He supports independence but has ruled out a referendum in a Plaid government’s first term.

Northern Ireland has the only legal route to a vote. The 1998 Belfast Agreement ties a border poll to whether a majority for unity “appears likely” to the Northern Ireland secretary. The Irish Times poll of polls, a three-year average, puts staying in the UK at 48% and unity at 35%. Another 17% are unsure. Amarach Research asked about a united Ireland inside the EU, in a poll for European Movement Ireland. In Northern Ireland, 63% said yes and 29% said no.

Le Pen drops Frexit and targets the EU budget

Marine Le Pen once made leaving the EU and the euro flagship pledges, in her 2012 and 2017 presidential campaigns. She now leads the polls for the 2027 election and proposes no Frexit referendum. Her National Rally instead wants France’s net EU contribution capped at €5bn a year, down from about €8bn.

In Brussels on 14 October, she said the European Commission should stay out of health, security and diplomacy. “Being pro-France does not mean being anti-Europe,” she told reporters. She has also vowed to “stop” the European Green Deal and pledged to end French financial aid to Ukraine.

Amnesties, a Trump test and a 97.7% vote still waiting

In Spain, Supreme Court judge Pablo Llarena revoked the national arrest warrant for Carles Puigdemont on 6 October. The Constitutional Court had approved applying the 2024 amnesty law to embezzlement charges linked to Catalonia’s 2017 referendum. Puigdemont has lived outside Spain since that October.

Greenland’s 2009 Self-Government Act sets out a route to independence, which needs consent from its parliament and a referendum. In January, as Trump pressed for US control, Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen spoke beside Denmark’s leader in Copenhagen. He said that “if we have to choose between the United States and Denmark here and now, we choose Denmark”.

Bougainville voted 97.7% for independence from Papua New Guinea in a non-binding 2019 referendum. Seven years on, PNG’s parliament is still debating whether to ratify it. Bougainville Affairs Minister Manasseh Makiba says ratification needs a three-quarters majority. Prime Minister James Marape says a vote date will be agreed with Bougainville’s leaders.

What would test the shift

The Alberta referendum’s official count on 29 October will confirm how firm those majorities are. The harder test is whether Smith turns the citizenship and immigration results into law. Then comes whether they survive Ottawa and the courts. In Quebec, it is whether St-Pierre Plamondon calls his referendum after January 2029. In the UK, Burnham has set the bar himself: clear public support for a second Scottish vote.