The World Bank expects global oil consumption to fall 2.5% this year, the third-largest drop on record. Aluminium, copper and tin have set record prices, which the Bank links to spending on renewables, EVs and data centres.
The World Bank expects global oil consumption to shrink by 2.6 million barrels a day this year, a fall of 2.5%. Its latest commodities outlook says only 2020 and 1980 saw bigger annual drops. Since April, aluminium, copper and tin have all set record prices.
Energy prices had fallen for three years before 2026. The Bank’s energy price index slid from 101.5 in 2024 to 90.0 in 2025. This year it forecasts a 32% jump, with Brent crude averaging $91 a barrel, up from $69 last year. Across all commodities, it expects prices to rise 23%.
Oil use is falling as the war in the Middle East cuts global oil supply by a forecast 5.2%. The same shock looks likely to cut global fossil emissions this year. However, part of the drop comes from vehicles that don’t burn oil at all.
China’s electric cars lead the switch
In China, electric vehicles displaced 1.5 million barrels a day of road-fuel demand in the second quarter of 2026, the Bank estimates. That’s nearly twice what the International Energy Agency expected before the conflict. The Bank forecasts a 2.9% fall in China’s total oil demand this year and calls EV displacement there “a now established trend”.
The IEA’s Global EV Outlook puts worldwide displacement at about 1.7 million barrels a day in 2025, before this year’s price spike. China accounted for about 1 million of that. Under current policies, the agency expects the global figure to reach about 5 million barrels a day by 2030.
Record prices for the metals of electrification
Metals prices, by contrast, are forecast to rise 25% this year to a new high. The Bank links the gains to investment in renewable energy, electric vehicles and data centres. It forecasts copper at an average of $13,200 a tonne in 2026.
Copper mine output has also fallen short of expectations, partly because ore grades in Chile are declining. Meanwhile, the prospect of US tariffs has pushed buyers to build up copper stocks.
Food bills carry the cost
Food prices are forecast to rise about 10% this year and 7% in 2027, while fertiliser climbs 14% in 2026. The Bank blames high energy costs, El Niño and disrupted grain exports from the Black Sea.
“Commodity markets are being hit by several major shocks at once,” said Ayhan Kose, the World Bank’s deputy chief economist. The Bank’s adverse scenario combines several of these risks, including renewed conflict and a very strong El Niño. In that case, Brent could average $105 in 2027. Food prices could then sit 12% above the baseline forecast, higher than their 2022 level.
The Bank expects Brent to fall back to $79 next year. If prices ease and China’s oil demand keeps falling anyway, the switch will have outlasted the shock that sped it up. The Bank already lists faster electric vehicle uptake as one of the risks that could push oil prices lower.
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